If your mortgage payment has jumped recently, or you’re a first-time buyer looking at today’s rates and wondering how anybody afforded a house a few years ago, you’ve probably asked:
“Will mortgage rates ever go back down?”
The honest answer is:
Yes, mortgage rates can fall.
But nobody can reliably tell you exactly when, how far, or whether we’ll ever see the exceptionally low mortgage rates that became normal to many borrowers before 2022.
And I think that last point matters.
For years, borrowers became accustomed to extremely cheap borrowing.
Someone coming off a mortgage rate beginning with a 1 or a 2 can understandably look at today’s market and think:
“Surely rates have to go back to normal eventually?”
The problem is that those ultra-low rates weren’t necessarily “normal” at all.
They were part of an unusual period in economic history.
So rather than trying to predict a magic number, let’s look at what actually makes mortgage rates rise and fall, what the current market is telling us, and what I think homeowners and first-time buyers should focus on instead.
Where Are Mortgage Rates Right Now?
At the time of writing, 11 September 2026, the Bank of England Base Rate is 3.75%.
The next Bank of England interest-rate decision is due on 17 September 2026.
Mortgage rates are higher than the Bank of England Base Rate itself.
Rightmove’s mortgage tracker currently shows average rates of approximately:
- 5.17% for a two-year fixed mortgage
- 5.18% for a five-year fixed mortgage
Those are market averages, not necessarily the rate an individual borrower would qualify for.
Rates vary considerably depending on factors such as your:
- deposit or equity
- loan-to-value
- credit history
- mortgage size
- property
- income and circumstances
- and the particular lender and product.
So when you see somebody online say:
“Mortgage rates are 4.4%.”
that doesn’t necessarily mean your mortgage rate will be 4.4%.
The lowest headline rate and the most suitable mortgage for you are not always the same thing.
Does the Bank of England Set Mortgage Rates?
Not directly.
This is probably one of the most useful things I explain to clients.
The Bank of England sets the Bank of England Base Rate.
It does not sit down and decide:
“Two-year fixed mortgages will be 4.75% this week.”
Tracker mortgages are usually much more directly connected to movements in the Bank of England Base Rate.
Fixed-rate mortgages work differently.
Their pricing is influenced by several things, including:
- financial-market expectations for future interest rates
- wholesale funding costs
- swap rates
- competition between lenders
- lender funding requirements
- risk
- and lenders’ commercial margins.
This is why fixed mortgage rates can move even when the Bank of England hasn’t changed the Base Rate at all.
Why Did Mortgage Rates Rise Even Though the Base Rate Didn’t?
We’ve had a very good example of this during 2026.
The Bank of England Base Rate has remained at 3.75% since December 2025, but fixed mortgage rates have still moved substantially.
Recent global uncertainty, including the conflict involving Iran, has affected inflation expectations and financial markets.
The Bank of England has highlighted how the UK overnight-index-swap market moved following the outbreak of the conflict, reflecting both expectations and increased compensation demanded by investors for uncertainty.
That matters because wholesale-market movements can feed through into how lenders price fixed mortgages.
In early September, several lenders increased their fixed rates after swap rates moved higher.
So:
Bank of England Base Rate unchanged does not necessarily mean mortgage rates unchanged.
And equally:
The Bank of England doesn’t necessarily need to cut the Base Rate before fixed mortgage rates can fall.
That’s an important distinction.
So What Are Swap Rates?
You don’t need a finance degree to understand the basic principle.
Very simply, swap markets help reflect what financial markets expect interest rates to look like over different periods, alongside compensation for uncertainty and risk.
Lenders use wholesale markets as part of managing the cost and risk of offering fixed-rate mortgages.
If the expected cost of providing fixed borrowing falls, lenders may have room to reduce mortgage rates.
If those costs increase, lenders may increase their rates.
This explains something borrowers sometimes find strange.
You can wake up to headlines saying:
“Bank of England expected to cut rates.”
and then discover your favourite mortgage deal has actually become more expensive.
It isn’t necessarily contradictory.
The mortgage market may already have priced in the expected cut, or other market factors may have changed.
Will a Bank of England Base Rate Cut Make My Mortgage Cheaper?
It depends on the mortgage.
If you have a tracker mortgage
A tracker typically moves in relation to the Bank of England Base Rate, according to the terms of the mortgage.
So if the Base Rate falls, the rate payable on a tracker would normally fall accordingly.
If the Base Rate rises, it would normally rise.
If you’re already on a fixed mortgage
Your contractual rate generally remains fixed until the end of the fixed-rate period.
A Bank of England rate cut doesn’t normally reduce the monthly payment on an existing fixed-rate mortgage.
If you’re looking for a new fixed mortgage
It’s more complicated.
Fixed rates may move before or after a Bank of England decision because financial markets are constantly adjusting their expectations.
This is why trying to time your mortgage around the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting isn’t always as clever as it sounds.
Were 1% and 2% Mortgages Normal?
This deserves a bit of perspective.
The Bank of England cut the Base Rate to just 0.1% in March 2020, the lowest level in its history, as part of its response to the coronavirus pandemic.
It remained at that exceptionally low level for more than a year.
Cheap central-bank funding and unusual economic conditions helped create an environment where extremely low mortgage rates became available.
If you bought or remortgaged during that period, a mortgage rate beginning with a 1 may have started to feel normal.
Historically, however, a Bank of England Base Rate of 0.1% was anything but normal.
That doesn’t mean mortgage rates can never become that cheap again.
Nobody knows.
But I wouldn’t build a financial plan around assuming they will.
“I’ll Just Wait Until Rates Come Down”
This is something I hear from both first-time buyers and homeowners.
And sometimes waiting is perfectly reasonable.
But I would ask:
What exactly are you waiting for?
4.5%?
4%?
3.5%?
What happens if rates reach 4% but property prices have risen?
What happens if the property you wanted sells?
What happens if rates instead increase?
What happens if your own circumstances change?
Waiting is still a decision.
And it has its own risks and potential benefits.
I wouldn’t advise somebody to buy simply because I’m worried rates might rise.
Equally, I wouldn’t automatically tell somebody to postpone buying because we’re hoping rates might fall.
The decision has to work based on what we know today.
The Same Applies When You’re Remortgaging
If your current fixed mortgage is ending, waiting for a rate cut can feel tempting.
Suppose your current mortgage is at 1.8%.
Moving to something around 5% isn’t going to feel particularly appealing.
It’s natural to think:
“Perhaps I’ll wait another month and see what happens.”
But there’s a difference between reviewing the market and doing nothing.
If your mortgage deal is approaching its end, I think it’s sensible to understand your options early.
That doesn’t necessarily mean committing to a new deal immediately.
Depending on the lender and circumstances, it may be possible to secure an available product in advance and review things again if the market improves before completion.
The options and timescales vary between lenders.
The important part is not allowing the existing deal to expire simply because you’ve been waiting for a prediction to come true.
Could Mortgage Rates Fall Again?
Absolutely.
Mortgage rates are not fixed permanently at today’s levels.
Economic conditions change.
Inflation changes.
Bank of England policy changes.
Wholesale funding markets change.
Lenders compete with one another.
All of these things can push mortgage rates up or down.
But there’s an important difference between saying:
“Rates can fall.”
and:
“Rates will be 3% next year.”
The first is a fact about how markets work.
The second is a forecast.
And forecasts can be spectacularly wrong.
What Would Need to Happen for Mortgage Rates to Fall?
There isn’t one trigger, but some of the things that could support lower mortgage rates include:
- lower inflationary pressure
- reduced expectations for future interest rates
- falling wholesale funding costs
- greater stability in financial markets
- stronger competition between mortgage lenders.
Conversely, unexpected inflation, geopolitical events or changes in financial-market expectations could push borrowing costs higher again.
The events of 2026 are a useful reminder of how quickly expectations can change.
At the beginning of the year, the mortgage market looked quite different from where it stands today.
Don’t Try to Become an Amateur Interest-Rate Trader
This is probably the advice I’d most like homeowners to take away.
I spend my working life around mortgages, and I still wouldn’t claim to know exactly where mortgage rates will be in six months.
Neither does your friend at work.
Neither does the person making a confident 30-second TikTok.
And neither does the newspaper headline saying:
“Rates set to tumble!”
Financial markets involve millions of people collectively trying to price what happens next.
If the future were obvious, it would already be reflected in today’s prices.
So I don’t think the goal should be:
“How do I perfectly time the bottom of the mortgage market?”
It should be:
“Which mortgage makes sense for my circumstances if the future doesn’t behave exactly as I hope?”
That’s a much more useful conversation.
Should I Choose a Two-Year or Five-Year Fixed Mortgage While Rates Are High?
There isn’t one correct answer.
I’ve spoken to clients who instinctively prefer a shorter fixed rate because they believe:
“Rates will definitely be lower in two years.”
They might be.
But they might not.
A shorter fix could potentially allow you to reconsider your mortgage sooner if rates fall, but you could also find yourself remortgaging into a market where rates are higher.
A longer fixed rate can provide greater payment certainty for longer, but could mean remaining tied to that rate if cheaper options subsequently become available.
Early Repayment Charges can also be relevant if you need to leave a fixed deal early.
This isn’t really a prediction exercise.
It’s a risk-preference conversation.
How valuable is certainty to you?
How comfortable are you if rates rise?
Could your circumstances change?
Are you likely to move?
What’s your household budget?
Those answers matter more than my guess about where interest rates might go.
What About a Tracker Mortgage?
Trackers can be worth considering for some borrowers because their interest rate moves in relation to the Bank of England Base Rate.
Some tracker mortgages also have no Early Repayment Charges, although this varies by product.
That flexibility can be attractive to somebody who doesn’t want to commit to a fixed rate.
But there is a trade-off.
If the Bank of England Base Rate rises, your mortgage rate and payments may rise too.
A tracker therefore isn’t simply:
“The mortgage you choose when you think rates are going down.”
It needs to fit your circumstances and your ability to cope with potentially changing monthly payments.
The Cheapest Rate Isn’t Always the Cheapest Mortgage
Another thing worth mentioning while we’re talking about rates:
Don’t become obsessed with the headline percentage.
Imagine:
Mortgage A: 4.6% with a £1,499 fee
and
Mortgage B: 4.75% with no fee.
Which is cheaper?
You can’t answer that from those two numbers alone.
It depends on factors including:
- how much you’re borrowing
- how long the initial deal lasts
- the monthly payments
- fees
- incentives
- and the overall cost during the period you’re comparing.
A lower interest rate does not automatically mean a lower total cost.
That’s another reason I prefer looking at mortgages as a whole rather than treating the interest rate like a football score.
What Should First-Time Buyers Do?
If you’re buying your first home, I wouldn’t base your decision entirely on where you think mortgage rates might go.
I’d work backwards.
Look at:
What can you comfortably afford each month?
Not what the lender will theoretically allow you to stretch to.
Then consider:
- your deposit
- emergency savings
- normal household expenditure
- financial commitments
- potential mortgage payments
- and how resilient the budget would be if life changed.
If the numbers work comfortably at today’s rates, you can make a decision based on something tangible.
If they only work on the assumption that mortgage rates fall substantially next year, I’d be much more cautious.
What Should Existing Homeowners Do?
If you’re approaching the end of your current deal, I’d start reviewing your mortgage before the fixed period actually expires.
Understand:
- your outstanding balance
- property value
- loan-to-value
- current lender options
- remortgage options
- any Early Repayment Charges
- and what different mortgage payments would do to your household budget.
Then you can make an informed choice.
You don’t need to correctly predict the economy.
You need to understand your options.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will UK mortgage rates go down?
They can. Mortgage rates move according to several factors, including expectations for future interest rates, wholesale funding costs and lender competition. However, nobody can reliably predict exactly when rates will fall or how far.
What is the Bank of England Base Rate right now?
As at 11 September 2026, the Bank of England Base Rate is 3.75%. The next Monetary Policy Committee decision is scheduled for 17 September 2026.
Will mortgage rates fall if the Bank of England cuts the Base Rate?
Tracker mortgages normally respond more directly to Bank of England Base Rate changes. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by wider financial-market expectations and funding costs, so they may move before, after or independently of an individual Base Rate decision.
Will 2% mortgage rates ever come back?
Nobody can say with certainty. Mortgage rates around or below 2% were available during an unusually low-interest-rate environment, including a period when the Bank of England Base Rate was just 0.1%. It would be unwise to assume those conditions will necessarily return.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying?
That depends on your circumstances. Waiting could potentially result in lower borrowing costs if rates fall, but rates could also rise and other factors such as property prices or your personal circumstances may change. The important question is whether the purchase is affordable and appropriate based on your circumstances today.
Should I fix my mortgage now or wait?
There isn’t a universal answer. Fixed and variable mortgages involve different levels of certainty, flexibility and risk. The appropriate choice depends on your circumstances, budget and attitude towards changing mortgage payments.
Final Thoughts
So, will mortgage rates ever go back down?
Almost certainly, mortgage rates will continue to move both up and down over time.
But if what you’re really asking is:
“Will I get my old 1.5% mortgage rate back if I wait long enough?”
nobody can responsibly promise you that.
And I don’t think that’s the question to build your finances around.
When I’m advising clients, I’m not trying to win a competition to predict next year’s Bank of England Base Rate.
I’m trying to help them choose a mortgage that makes sense for their circumstances.
One they can afford.
One whose risks they understand.
And one that doesn’t depend on us having a crystal ball.
Because the best mortgage decision isn’t necessarily the one that turns out to have caught the lowest rate in hindsight.
It’s the one that was suitable for you based on the information available when you made it.
If you’re buying your first home or your current mortgage deal is approaching its end and you’d like to understand the options available to you, you can book an appointment here:
https://veganmortgageadviser.co.uk/appointment
Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.
Mortgage rates can rise as well as fall. The availability and suitability of mortgage products depend on individual circumstances and lender criteria. Any figures quoted in this article were correct at the time of writing and may subsequently change. This article provides general information and does not constitute a personal recommendation.